Cebu’s Summer Squeeze: Can the Visayas grid take the heat?
Will Cebu have enough power this summer? As the summer heat intensifies across the Philippines, driving up energy demand, the Visayas grid is once again under close scrutiny. While government projections indicate a sufficient overall supply to meet anticipated peak consumption in the region, the experience of 2024 underscores the need for continued vigilance, particularly for areas like Cebu.
The Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts peak demand this year to reach 3,111 MW for the entire Visayas grid, a notable increase from the 2,681 MW peak recorded in May of last year. This rise in demand, coupled with the specific energy needs of a major economic hub like Cebu, necessitates a closer look beyond the general regional projections.
In terms of supply for the Visayas, DOE projections show a maximum adjusted available capacity of 3,040 MW. Encouragingly, new projects currently undergoing testing could potentially add 193 MW to the Visayas grid. These figures are based on the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP) 2025-2027 and committed projects for the year.
While the projected supply for the Visayas as a whole appears adequate, the crucial question for Cebu remains: Will the transmission infrastructure and localized generation within and connected to Cebu be sufficient to reliably deliver power during peak demand? The overall Visayas grid capacity doesn’t guarantee uninterrupted power for every locality. Factors such as transmission line capacity, maintenance schedules, and potential localized generation issues in Cebu itself will play a significant role in ensuring a stable power supply throughout the summer months. The lessons learned from the power challenges experienced in the Visayas in 2024 highlight the importance of proactive measures and robust infrastructure to guarantee a consistent energy supply for all areas, including Cebu.
On the other hand, the DOE projects peak demand to reach 14,769 MW for Luzon, exceeding last year’s peak of 14,016 MW. Mindanao’s projected peak of 2,789 MW is also close to its previous high of 2,577 MW last May.
“Without mindful consumption, this surge could strain the power grid, potentially leading to supply challenges and price fluctuations in the spot market,” Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla said.
Complementing these supply projections, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) has reported an available transmission capacity of 10,260 MW across the three major grids, with Luzon receiving the largest share at 6,573 MW, followed by Visayas at 2,281 MW, and Mindanao at 1,406 MW.
Despite the seemingly sufficient transmission capacity, the NGCP cautions that yellow and red alerts remain a possibility, particularly if forced outages or delays in supply occur. This concern is underscored by the experience of 2024, where the NGCP issued a yellow alert for Visayas when demand reached 2,538 MW, even with an available capacity of 2,890 MW.
This past event highlights the inherent vulnerabilities within the current energy system, especially during the peak demand periods of the summer months, emphasizing that available capacity alone does not guarantee uninterrupted power supply.
“The timely commissioning of new power plants, as outlined in the DOE committed power projects report, will significantly impact the grid’s resource adequacy,” the NGCP said.
The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) warns the Visayas grid anticipates scarce power reserves this June, making the island more vulnerable. The policy group explains that while the Visayas grid is expected to maintain normal reserves in the second quarter, it still relies on power imports from Luzon and Mindanao. This means Luzon’s potential restriction of exports due to its own inadequate power supply during peak months could lead to possible yellow alerts in the Visayas.
Securing energy independence for Cebu
The stability of the Visayas grid is vital to Cebu, as the island heavily depends on energy imports from neighboring provinces like Panay and Leyte. Approximately 60 percent of Cebu’s power originates from plants outside Metro Cebu, making it particularly vulnerable to grid disruptions.
Cebu Governor Gwendolyn Garcia has repeatedly emphasized the urgency of securing Cebu’s energy sources, especially in light of past outages and growing demand. She stressed that the province must be “very serious” about building additional capacity locally.
“We cannot be relying mainly on others for our power. We need to be self-sufficient, not in 2027 but now,” she said.
During the extreme heatwave in April 2024, various parts of the country, including the Visayas, experienced power outages lasting several hours or even days.
Industry analysts point to the failure to expand the capacity of existing power plants as a key factor in the recurring outages. Jose M. Layug, Jr., president of the Developers of Renewable Energy for Advancement, Inc., said roughly 2,500 MW of power has been unavailable during peak summer periods over the past four years, mainly due to aging power plants.
Diversified energy mix key to grid stability
The Energy Department projects approximately 6,841 megawatts (MW) of new power capacity to become available this year from projects commencing operations. Luzon is slated to receive the largest portion of this new capacity at 5,754 MW, followed by the Visayas with 855 MW and Mindanao with 232 MW.
A considerable portion of the new 855-MW capacity expected this year comes from renewable energy projects, namely the 300-MW Kananga-Ormoc Solar Power Project, the 137.48-MW Calatrava Solar Power Project, the 130.05-MW Bacolod Solar Power Project, and the 112-MW San Isidro Solar Power Project Phase 1. But because of the intermittent nature of renewable energy capacities, more needs to be done to improve the deficit in the Visayas.
The DOE also highlights the continued importance of traditional power sources, with 1,320 MW from gas, 500 MW from coal, and 76 MW from oil-based plants also scheduled to come online.
While renewable energy projects are a priority, their inherent intermittency and current scale are still insufficient to meet all energy demands, particularly during critical summer peaks. Consequently, the contributions of stable, baseload capacity from traditional power sources remain vital and are becoming increasingly apparent in ensuring a reliable energy supply.
Aiming to bolster the Visayas’ new energy capacity, Therma Visayas Inc. (TVI) is undertaking a 150-MW expansion of its baseload power plant in Toledo, Cebu. This initiative contributes significantly to Cebu’s pursuit of energy self-sufficiency amidst increasing peak demands, while also enhancing regional grid stability by providing reliable, dispatchable power during critical periods.
The current situation highlights the complex interplay of factors affecting the Visayas grid and Cebu’s quest for energy independence. While reserves exist–with the NGCP noting the Visayas grid has the thinnest power reserves compared to Luzon and Mindanao–they are being tested by unprecedented heat, weather conditions, and the gradual pace of infrastructure development.
Moreover, a diversified energy mix, including both renewable and traditional sources, is key to ensuring grid stability.
The intense summer months underscore the urgent need for investment in energy infrastructure. For Cebu and the rest of the Philippines, maintaining a stable, reliable, and sustainable power supply will require strategic planning, timely project completion, and a balanced mix of renewable and traditional energy sources.
ADVT.
This article is brought to you by Cebu Summer Squeeze.
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